Background
This report contains an assessment of the state-of-the-art of modeling and analysis for civil preparedness and management of the post-attack U.S. *economy. This evaluation was derived from a large volume of related literature. A selected, annotated bibliography of over 100 entries follows a state-of-the-art assessment.
Literature areas reviewed included historical disasters, industry studies, post-attack viability, survival and economic recovery, and civil defense, both U.S. and Soviet. Some literature on modeling methods was researched. Modeling methods covered were input/output, econometrics, optimization and system dynamics.
Analysis of the literature and current state-of-the-art revealed several key management aspects of the post-attack economy. These aspects were resource allocation and distribution, energy, information, communication, command and control (C3), finance, social and behavioral response, and government authority. Most of these managerial aspects were found to have been neither thoroughly analyzed nor specifically modeled.
Assessing modeling needs, available modeling methods, and deficiencies in the state-of-the-art led to a recommendation for further development of system dynamics models for management of U.S. post-attack economic recovery. System dynamics is suggested because of its flexibility, potential scope, an capabilities for handling non-linearities, dynamic effects, on soft items such as social and behavioral responses.
Critical issues recommended for further investigation include: analysis of the use of information, communications, command and control (C3) systems in the post-attack survival and economic recovery management; incorporation of the impacts of mobilization and national security requirements on post-attack U.S. economic recovery; consideration of multiple regions with varying damage levels: analysis of social and behavioral factors; and evaluation of alternative civil preparedness policies. Taken together, these recommendations point toward analysis and development of a comprehensive but not cumbersome model for the assessment of alternative policies for civil preparedness and post-attack U.S. economic recovery.
Declassified Documents
Civil Preparedness and Post-Attack U.S. Economic Recovery: A State-of-the-Art Assessment and Selected Annotated Bibliography, Volume 1, October 1979 [341 Pages, 14.7MB] – This report contains an assessment of the state-of-the-art of modeling and analysis for civil preparedness and management of the post-attack U.S. economy. This evaluation was derived from a large volume of related literature. A selected annotated bibliography of over 100 entries follows a state-of-the-art assessment.
Managing the U.S. Economy in a Post-Attack Environment: A System Dynamics Model of Viability, Volume 2, November 1979 [77 Pages, 3.2MB] – The primary objective of this study is to determine if post-attack viability (or collapse) is automatic for a given system, or if management actions can influence the outcome. In investigating this problem, the approach focuses on exploring the structure of a post-attack system for instabilities, identifying the processes that could lead to collapse, and then evaluating if and how alternative post-attack management policies can mitigate the effects of those instabilities.
Options for Accelerating Economic Recovery after Nuclear Attack. Volume 3, July 1979 [122 Pages, 5.92MB] – The United States may fail to exploit to the fullest its potential for economic recovery following a nuclear attack because failures in post-attack management in both the political and the economic sectors. This report looks at possible adjustments in our continually evolving peacetime management systems, adjustments which might contribute substantially to post-attack recovery at little peacetime cost. The post-attack considerations addressed include making government more effective in bringing about economic recovery and, very importantly, making sure that government continues as government, i.e., that we do not sink into anarchy. Five broad categories of adjustments are discussed.