The following document was received under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). It was created by the Director of the DIA, LTG Patrick M. Hughes. In the introduction, he writes:

This is the fourth edition of the Primer on the Future Threat and my final as the Director of DIA.

My intent remains to provide a thought provoking document that highlights for decision makers and long range planners those threats and challenges that may emerge in the period 1999-2020 and beyond.

Over the past five years, the Department of Defense has grown increasingly concerned with the future global security environment, in part because of the ambiguity and uncertainty that we expect will continue to characterize the global condition.

Lacking the central threat focus of the Cold War, we must anticipate a much broader set of challenging circumstances and conditions.

This primer endeavors to help decision makers and planners by illuminating key trends that will impact the world of the 21st century, identifying critical uncertainties, and addressing potential implications for the nature of conflict and warfare.

Declassified Documents

 A Primer on the Future Threat, The Decades Ahead: 1999-2020 [164 Pages, 79.6MB]

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