Dec 11, 2012
Future outlined in ‘New world order’ report by US intelligence
A U.S intelligence report forecasts that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.
By 2030 people will be healthier, better educated and connected to the Internet. Around one third of the global population of 8.3 billion in 2030 will constitute a powerful middle class. These are some of the findings outlined in the report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” drafted by the US National Intelligence Council.
“We do not seek to predict,” said Christopher A. Kojm, the chairman of the National Intelligence Council. “Instead we provide a framework to think about possible futures.”
The United States claims that the USA will remain preeminent because of its legacy strengths, its ability to form coalitions, the council foresees and points to that “no other power would be likely to achieve the same panoply of power in this time frame under any plausible scenario.”
"Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and Pax Americana - the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 - is fast winding down," it said.
The study predicted that Asia's economy, military spending and technological investment would surpass those of North America and Europe combined by 2030, but warned of major uncertainty over an emerging China.
The report claims that the world will be at constant risk of conflicts due to proliferation of sophisticated weapons of war – including biological weaponry - among governments and even non-state actors.
Struggle for resources – food, water and energy – and climate change will certainly become the main challenges, the report says.
There will be “a shift in the technological center of gravity from West to East and South” as “companies, ideas, entrepreneurs and capital” flow from the developed to the developing world, the report concludes.
Global Trends 2030 predicts new threats
Developing Asian countries will dominate the world in 2030 while new technology will allow global governments monitor their citizens, says the Global Trends 2030 report released Monday by the US government's National Intelligence Council.
According to the document, the widespread use of new communications technologies will enable citizens to join together and challenge governments, as seen in Middle East, but will also provide governments "an unprecedented ability to monitor their citizens.
“A cyber arms race is likely to occur” as states seek to defend infrastructure against cyber attacks and to incorporate cyber weapons in their arsenals, the analysts predict.