BREAKING: New Analysis Reveals President Trump Must Lock Down the USA Just Like Italy In Order to Break the Chain of Exponential Spread of The Coronavirus… All Air Traffic and Road Traffic Must Be Hal | The Trump Administration & US Politics | Forum

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BREAKING: New Analysis Reveals President Trump Must Lock Down the USA Just Like Italy In Order to Break the Chain of Exponential Spread of The Coronavirus… All Air Traffic and Road Traffic Must Be Hal
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March 10, 2020
10:44 pm
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Richard Daystrom PhD
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BREAKING: New Analysis Reveals President Trump Must Lock Down the USA Just Like Italy In Order to Break the Chain of Exponential Spread of The Coronavirus… All Air Traffic and Road Traffic Must Be Halted

 

Tuesday, March 10, 2020 by: Mike Adams
Tags: CollapseCoronavirusInfectionsItalyLockdownMartial lawOutbreakPredictionsPresident TrumpProjectionsQuarantineUSAWhite House

(Natural News) Last night, we published a new pandemic projection model with a downloadable spreadsheet so you can run your own scenarios and see all the math and methodology behind the projection. You can download that spreadsheet from this article on Natural News.

That model introduced a new factor called the “social distancing suppression factor” which describes what percentage of infections are prevented due to social distancing: people staying home from work, closing schools, banning air travel, etc.

Using this tool, we’ve been able to run different scenarios that examine the R0 values of the virus vs. the social distancing suppression factor required to stop the virus from exponentially exploding across the country. This has revealed some fascinating data that speaks to the urgent need for the USA to follow Italy with a nationwide quarantine of everyone.

It is the only way this pandemic can be stopped, it turns out.

For background the R0 value describes how many new people get infected by an infected carrier. Normally the R0 value would encompass social distancing factors itself (i.e. the R0 would change as human behavior changes), but we have introduced the social distancing suppression factor as a separate variable in order to independently test the results of quarantines, air traffic lockdowns and so on.

Here’s what the projections now show:

  • If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 2.0, social distancing measures must achieve a 48% suppression of new infections to stop the coronavirus from exploding across America.
  • If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 3.0, social distancing measures must achieve a 54% suppression of new infections to stop the coronavirus from exploding across America.
  • If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 4.0, social distancing measures must achieve a 74% suppression of new infections to stop the coronavirus from exploding across America.
  • If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 5.0, social distancing measures must achieve a 79% suppression of new infections to stop the coronavirus from exploding across America.
  • If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 6.0, social distancing measures must achieve a 83% suppression of new infections to stop the coronavirus from exploding across America.

In other words, the higher the R0 value of the virus, the more aggressive the containment strategies must be in order to stop its exponential spread.

Current scientific studies estimate the coronavirus R0 value to be somewhere between 4.5 and 6.6, although these numbers surely vary across the many different strains that have already mutated and spread across the world.

These suppression factors are “tipping points” that MUST be reached, or the exponential spread continues

What really shocked me in running these projections is how a very tiny difference in the suppression values can result in long-term differences that describe millions of lives lost or saved. The suppression percentages described above are “tipping points” after which the virus get largely contained and stops its exponential spread. But merely getting close to that tipping point isn’t enough. You have to meet or exceed those percentages, or the virus continues to replicate beyond your control.

If the coronavirus has an R0 value of 6.0, in other words, the importance of enforcing lock downs and medical martial law becomes critical. Even a few people breaking quarantine can sustain the exponential spread of the virus.

It’s clear that China realized this early on, which is why they resorted to draconian crackdown measures that saw people literally welded into their apartment buildings under armed guard.

Trump must now shut down all US air traffic, roadways and cities, or the virus will continue to exponentially spread across America

The upshot is that until President Trump declares a national emergency and locks down the USA in the same way Italy has just done — a nationwide quarantine of everyone — the virus will continue to exponentially spread across America.

In order to break the exponential cycle of the virus spread, Trump would have to:

  • Block all international flights into the USA from all countries
  • Close all borders and stop cross-border traffic
  • Shut down all domestic commercial air travel
  • Order all public schools, universities, government offices and churches to close
  • Cancel all public events, including concerts, conferences, etc.
  • Quarantine all US cities, block all highways in and out
  • Shut down all public transportation, including subways, buses, taxis and rail
  • Enact nationwide medical martial law and prevent people from leaving their homes or gathering in groups of any kind

These efforts might achieve a 90% suppression factor, which would break the cycle of the coronavirus within 3-4 weeks.

In other words, America would have to endure a month of hell to stop the virus in its tracks.

We know this works from a medical standpoint. The question is at what cost to society and human freedom.

For starters, Americans have basic civil liberties that do not exist in China. Declaring medical martial law in America may not go over very well in terms of compliance among the people.

Secondly, the economic consequences would be catastrophic. Imagine shutting down the entire US economy for a full month. What would that do to the stock market? The GDP? How would Americans survive without paychecks for a month?

But if you don’t shut down the country, sooner or later your hospitals are overrun with infections and you end up with a national health crisis that gets even worse than just shutting everything down for a month in the early weeks of the pandemic.

So far, Trump has chosen the “catastrophic” track for America, which begins with DENIAL and ends with DISASTER

So far, it seems that Trump has chosen to kick the coronavirus can down the road and wait for this thing to explode into a nationwide health crisis. According to our calculations, if nothing is done to stop the exponential spread of the virus in the USA, the hospitals will be overrun around the end of May.

It also means that Trump can continue to play his “denial” game for about six more weeks, after which the denial gambit collapses into a national crisis and the Trump administration is probably done for.

Put another way, President Trump has perhaps only a few more weeks to save his presidency and save America from an exploding national crisis, and he must take aggressive quarantine / lock down actions, not just pump more counterfeit money into the stock market. You can’t solve this problem with more Fed pumping. Sooner or later, you have to deal with the actual virus and how to stop it from replicating in the lungs of the American people.

If Trump does nothing, millions will die. Our current projections, now using a 25% social distancing suppression factor, puts the estimated number of deaths in America at 1.1 million by July 4th if Trump does nothing to stop this. This number can be reduced to just 1,322 deaths if Trump takes aggressive action to lock down the USA.

In other words, we can stop this. But decisive, aggressive action must begin very soon, and we must all be willing to live in isolation for about 30 days to break the cycle of the coronavirus.

So, the good news is we have a solution for the coronavirus. The bad news is the solution might crater the US economy and cause unimaginable disruptions nationwide, including shortages of food, medicine, water and so on.

The bad news is that if we aren’t willing to go through that hell, a far worse nationwide crisis eventually unfolds due to the laws of mathematics and biology, and the US hospital system turns into a hell zone of mass disease and death, during which the mortality rate for the infection will skyrocket to 10% or more, multiplying the casualties even further.

The even worse news is that Trump currently has us on the “catastrophic” track, which begins with denial and ends with disaster.

Stay informed by reading Pandemic.news.

Previous: GOOD NEWS: US deaths from the coronavirus could be reduced to 1.1 million by July 4th via “social distancing” measures, new projection shows

W. O. Belfield, Jr.

March 11, 2020
7:44 am
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Straight Zeke the Geek
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There's some good interactive charts here on this page.  I can't verify that this site is scientifically sound but they appear so.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/.....eath-toll/

Coronavirus Death Toll

4,382 deaths
 
March 10 -- 271 deaths
March 09 -- 198 deaths
March 08 -- 228 deaths
March 07 -- 105 deaths
March 06 -- 107 deaths
March 05 -- 102 deaths
March 04 -- 83 deaths
March 03 -- 85 deaths
March 02 -- 67 deaths
March 01 -- 73 deaths
 
As you can see the death toll is rising and had already peaked in a first wave on February 23, so perhaps this second wave will peak and taper off like before.
 
Maybe these end of world projections are accurate, maybe doomsaying for speed bucks.

Aliens, traitors and mortal enemies would oppose me and attack me but not my loved ones, my family, my countrymen or my allies.

March 24, 2020
1:32 pm
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Straight Zeke the Geek
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I am renewing this with recent data.  Italy has 6000 deaths total and China 3000.  In Italy the death rate is 10% unlike everywhere else at 1%-4%.  I attribute this to their socio-political lifestyle and culture.  With a more brutal, streetfighter mentality than everywhere else in the world and a worldwide reputation for hanky panky and mobster action, its no wonder the healthcare system there is operated by a bunch of Dr. Kervorkians.  Italy also appears to not report the whole outcome and data and so this death rate could be much higher and they're trying to hide it.  Shitty healthcare system run by streetfighters.

 

March 24 - 2000+ deaths
March 23 -- 1873 deaths
March 22 -- 1626 deaths
March 21 -- 1628 deaths
March 20 -- 1356 deaths
March 19 -- 1080 deaths

Aliens, traitors and mortal enemies would oppose me and attack me but not my loved ones, my family, my countrymen or my allies.

March 29, 2020
8:32 am
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Jamie
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Does anyone on this site, know anyone, family, friends, distant relatives, anyone who has actually died? Just a name, so far,all I've heard are stats. I don't mean to be sound heartless here, but I don't buy this crap at all.

It's better to walk alone, than with a crowd going in the wrong direction. H.S.

March 29, 2020
10:17 am
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greeney2
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One thing is not fake, and that is the world reaction to this, and what the potential can be.  Pray for an end in sight. 

March 29, 2020
10:37 am
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Jamie
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Cheers to that man.

It's better to walk alone, than with a crowd going in the wrong direction. H.S.

March 29, 2020
11:01 am
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greeney2
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Jamie how is the area you live in affected so far?  In Los Angeles we are in stay at home mode, stores are closed, restaurants only delivery or drive thru/take out. All routine dr. appointments are cancelled or replaced with virtual calls.    Gas stations, markets, hardwares, essential things are open.

March 29, 2020
12:07 pm
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Jamie
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Ya , I live in a pretty rural area, but going into the city for anything is pretty much the same. Only essential business, five at a time in stores. Banks are just machines. It's just ridiculous. Toilet paper made a return to the shelves lol.

It's better to walk alone, than with a crowd going in the wrong direction. H.S.

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