July 06, 2009.
WASHINGTON'S traditional means of projecting power abroad was growing "increasingly obsolete" and its billion-dollar military hardware could be as ineffectual against future threats as the heavily fortified Maginot line was in defending France against the Nazis, a senior Pentagon adviser has warned.
In a wake-up call to US military chiefs, Andrew Krepinevich, a leading architect of the counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan, argued that the Pentagon was ill-equipped to counter rising powers such as China, hostile states such as Iran, the threat from irregular forces such as Hezbollah, and terrorists such as al-Qa'ida. It was also wasting billions on outdated weaponry.
In an interview in the July issue of Foreign Affairs Mr Krepinevich said the military was in danger of "drinking its own bathwater" and discounting new challenges, including the proliferation of precision-guided weapons and threats from space and cyberspace.
Last week US Defence Secretary Robert Gates rewarded him for his prescience with a seat on the influential Defence policy board at the Pentagon.
Aircraft carriers, navy destroyers, short-range fighter aircraft and forward bases such as Guam and Okinawa were increasingly vulnerable to technology and tactics being developed by the US's rivals, Mr Krepinevich argued.
Even new areas of supremacy, such as US dominance of global positioning satellites that guide smart bombs to their targets, were becoming a "wasting asset" as states such as China developed the space technology to destroy them. China already had the ballistic missiles and laser technology to destroy low-orbit satellites on which the military depended.
Mr Krepinevich claimed the US should devote more resources to cutting-edge nano-satellites to maintain its technological lead and should invest in missile interceptors and laser energy defences that could counter the threat from adversaries deploying their own "smart" weapons.
The Pentagon is preparing its defence review, which is presented to congress every four years. Along with retired lieutenant general Paul Van Riper, Mr Krepinevich has been appointed to a "red team" of defence advisers with responsibility for thinking like the enemy and spotting weaknesses in the quadrennial defence review. In his essay he drew attention to the astonishing success in 2002 of a red team of war-gamers, led by General Van Riper, representing an unnamed Gulf power, in reality, Iran.
A surprise attack was launched on the US fleet by swarms of Iranian suicide vessels and anti-ship cruise missiles. More than half of the US ships were sunk or disabled in "the worst naval disaster since Pearl Harbour".
General Van Riper turned off his anti-radar defences and kept his missile launchers moving, thwarting US attempts to track and destroy them, and rendering US ground forces that landed in Iran vulnerable to attack.
In wars of the future, "smart" rockets and missiles will be readily available to non-state forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, let alone traditional powers such as Russia and China, which already have the technology and the ability to onsell it.
Despite this, the Pentagon is spending billions on short-range strike aircraft that need to operate from forward land bases or aircraft carriers vulnerable to missiles, submarines and drones.











