greeney2 wrote:The coin toss example is actually a great science test project for younger kids to do in elementry school. But that is not a demonstration of Luck, it is a demonstation of odds. They have studies that deal with odds and probabilities.
Yes, and as I said before "luck" is simply turning out on the right side of those odds. If a statistically unlikely event turns out in your favour, you are deemed "lucky", and vice versa.
A lucky person should be able to guess correctly whether the coin will turn up heads or tails more often than is expected by chance. Of course, that person may just be psychic, but either way you're proving a supernatural claim.
In the plane example, we might say the odds of that baby surviving are about 1 in 1 million, at a wild guess, which again, is just odds. In the atomic blast survivor example, I'd say while extremely unlikely, it's near impossible to even attempt a guess at their chance of survival as there is not enough data to go on or real world examples to compare against.
greeney2 wrote:The odds do not changed in a coin toss no matter how many times the coin is flipped. One misconception and one of the biggers sucker thinks in Vegas, according to the vegas experts is the posting of what number has hit on roulette, and betting according to that number not coming up in a while. EAch roll of the ball, each coin toss is exactly the same odds, prior hits have nothing to do with it. The coin toss will never always be 50-50 odds.
Yep, the fallacy you speak of is called the "Gambler's fallacy".
greeney2 wrote:What about Luck when it comes to things that do not have hard mathmatical odds?
To be honest, the examples you gave do not have precise mathematical odds either. No coin is going to be perfectly fair, and no croupier is going to be completely unbiased, same goes for casino wheels. That's why casinos change wheels and croupiers routinely to minimize this potential bias, but it still exists in some tiny form.
Plane crashes and the like are obviously extremely difficult to apply a statistical likelihood of survival to, but that does not mean we cannot make an estimate and compare the "luck" of the people on board.
When someone wins the lottery, the odds against that are about 14 million to 1. The odds of the baby surviving may be less or slightly more, but is probably somewhat similar chance-wise.
Why do you consider the unharmed baby to be a miracle from God but the lottery win to be a routine statistical event, when odds-wise they may be on par?