TOKYO » Will they or won't they? That has been the big question dominating the news this past week. Will North Korea launch a Taepodong missile, either as an intercontinental ballistic missile test or in an attempt to launch a satellite (as they claimed during their last launch in 1998)?
No one knows! And trying to predict Pyongyang's behavior is a fool's task. But I, for one, hope that they do conduct a test, for a number of reasons.
Before explaining, it is worth pointing out an unpleasant fact that most critics seem to be ignoring: North Korea, like the United States or China, or even Kazakhstan (which launched its first communications satellite earlier in the month with little or no fanfare), has a right to conduct missile tests or satellite launches. There are certain international protocols that should be followed -- notice to mariners, airspace closures, prior notifications -- but a missile launch per se is not an illegal or necessarily hostile act.
Keep in mind also that North Korea's current moratorium is self-imposed; it was initiated in 1999 and was to run as long as missile talks between Washington and Pyongyang continued ... which they have not.
True, in the 2002 "Pyongyang Declaration" signed by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean "Dear Leader" Chairman Kim Jong-Il, both leaders pledged they "would not commit conducts threatening the security of the other side" and "confirmed the necessity of resolving security problems including nuclear and missile issues by promoting dialogues among countries concerned." This hardly sounds like a binding agreement and, again, little dialogue is currently taking place (although both Washington and Tokyo have expressed willingness to enter into bilateral talks with Pyongyang, within the context of the Six-Party Talks -- it is only North Korea that refuses to come back to the talks).
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