The bottom line has shifted only very subtly. Head-to-head, the Massachuestts senator has slipped from a slight lead in late June to a dead heat today, with 49 percent support for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry among registered voters. Including Ralph Nader, it's 48 percent-46 percent-3 percent. No Pre-Convention Bounce But perceptions on policy and personality are more important than horse-race standings at this stage, and there Kerry has work to do. He has a crucial chance to regain momentum as he accepts the Democratic nomination this week: Fewer than half of registered voters, 46 percent, say they have a good idea where he stands on the issues, a huge 28 points behind Bush. That represents opportunity, if Kerry can deliver a message that resonates.

And the public is listening. Not only is attention high, but 78 percent of registered voters call this an "especially important election," far more than said that in 2000 or 1996. Indeed, two-thirds say it's one of the single most important elections in their lifetimes.

Kerry's job is by no means easy. While some candidates have begun their "convention bounce" during the build-up to the event, even before their convention began, that has eluded Kerry. The past month's trend has not been to his advantage. And Bush's overall job approval rating appears to have stabilized, albeit at a tepid 50 percent.

Trust More to Handle Issues
Issue	Now: Bush	Now: Kerry	Month Ago: Bush	Month Ago: Kerry
Terrorism	55%	37	48	47
Taxes	49	43	41	53
Health Care	44	47	38	56
Iraq	52	40	49	47
Education	44	45	43	52
Economy	47	46	45	50

Iraq: Divisive Issue

An improving economy and the handover of authority in Iraq are among the likely factors influencing these assessments. So, too, is the attention focused on terrorism by the release of the Sept. 11 commission report last week. The nation's response to 9/11 has been Bush's finest hour in public approval; focus on it accrues to his advantage.

Probably the single most important advance for Bush on the issues in this poll is his rating for handling terrorism. Fifty-seven percent of Americans now approve, up from 50 percent last month. And registered voters trust Bush over Kerry to handle terrorism by 55 percent to 37 percent, compared with an even split, 48 percent to 47 percent, a month ago.

Among specific groups that are key to Kerry's chances, since June he has lost 13 points among women in trust to handle terrorism, 11 points among moderates and eight points among independents.

The public continues to divide evenly on whether the war in Iraq was worth fighting. But fewer than half, 42 percent, say the Bush administration "intentionally misled" the public in making its case for the war. And beyond Iraq, more say the United States is winning the war on terrorism rather than losing it, 51 percent to 34 percent.

What Matters Most

On the economy, public perceptions, while hardly enthusiastic, are their best (46 percent positive, 53 percent negative) in ABC/Post polls since July 2001. And Bush's approval rating for handling the economy, while not good, is better — up eight points since March, to 47 percent. Economic sentiment was vastly more sour at this time in 1992, when Bush's father was on his way to losing a second term.

This President Bush does remain vulnerable on his economic performance; 41 percent of Americans say most people have gotten worse off financially since he took office, while just 15 percent say most people are better off. That "worse off" number, though, is down from a high of 52 percent last fall — and it was worse still, 61 percent, in summer 1992.

Just more than a quarter of registered voters say the economy is the single most important issue in their vote for president; a fifth say Iraq and a fifth say terrorism. What's key is how their votes divide. Among those who say Iraq is most important, Kerry has maintained a wide lead. Among those who say it's terrorism, Bush's lead is even wider. In both cases these are unchanged since June.

It's among economy voters where change has occurred. In June they favored Kerry by a 17-point margin, 54 percent to 37 percent. Today that's dissolved to a dead heat.

Popularity Contests

There's also the optimism factor. Just 47 percent of registered voters are satisfied with the way things are going in this country, but many more — 67 percent —are optimistic about the year ahead. And more see Bush as an optimist (72 percent) than Kerry (55 percent). That makes it a tricky path for Kerry — delineating the nation's problems, economic and otherwise, without sounding more negative than the public itself.

Attributes are as important as issues, and here Kerry has work to do as well. His advantage over Bush as the candidate who better "understands your problems" has shrunk to a virtually insignificant four points; it was 18 points last month. Last month it was Kerry +12 as more honest; now it's Bush +6. And it was Bush +5 on leadership; it's Bush +19 now. The Bush campaign seems to have been effective at drawing Kerry in a more negative personal light. The convention is his chance to build it back.

Also critical has been the Bush campaign's success driving up Kerry's overall "unfavorable" rating, by criticizing his policies and personality alike. Favorability is a basic measure of popularity. Since March, at the height of his primary victories, favorable views of Kerry have declined by six points — and unfavorable views are up by 11 points. Bush's favorability rating, meanwhile, has gained six points, while his "unfavorable" score — which still slightly exceeds Kerry's — is little changed (+4).

Among others, Vice President Dick Cheney has a weak favorable-to-unfavorable rating of 43 percent to 41 percent, compared to John Edwards' 50 percent to 24 percent; luckily for Cheney very few voters base their vote on the vice-presidential nominee. Laura Bush tops the list in this poll with 66 percent to 12 percent favorability. Teresa Heinz Kerry is at a somewhat troublesome 27 percent to 26 percent, with nearly half the public yet to form an opinion of her. Independent candidate Nader has the worst ratio, 25 percent to 44 percent.

Approval Ratings

Even with his gains, Bush is not at all strongly rated. His overall job approval rating, as noted, is just 50 percent; only one postwar incumbent with a rating that low or lower has won re-election (Harry Truman in 1948). Forty-seven percent disapprove of Bush's work; it was 51 percent (a career high) last month.

Those who "strongly" disapprove inched down by five points in this poll, moving strong approvers and strong disapprovers back near parity.

Bush gets majority approval for handling just one of six specific issues tested in this poll, the war on terrorism; more than half (53 percent) disapprove on both Iraq and health care.

But more approve than disapprove of Bush's work on another strong second-tier issue, education, 49 percent to 41 percent. And Bush and Kerry are even in trust to handle education. Battling the Democrats to parity on this particular (and once solidly Democratic) issue was central to Bush's success in 2000, and he is holding that ground now.

Probably best for Kerry is a seven-point advance in the strength of his support — 72 percent of his supporters back him "strongly." Bush's support, though, is 88 percent strong.

Eighty percent of Kerry's supporters also say they'll "definitely" vote for him, as do the same number of Bush's. Support for both is much more locked-in than at this time in 2000, when Bush's support was 65 percent strong, Al Gore's, 56 percent. That could make it harder than usual for Kerry to score a sizable convention bounce this week.

Still, 5 percent of Kerry's supporters, and 7 percent of Bush's, say there's a good chance they'll change their minds — more than enough to shift the race dramatically, if they were to move in the same direction.

Beyond strength and solidity, enthusiasm is a third measure of the intensity of a candidate's support, potentially a critical factor in voter turnout. Ninety percent of Kerry's supporters, and 90 percent of Bush's, are enthusiastic. But Bush's are perhaps a bit more so: Forty-nine percent are "very" enthusiastic, compared to Kerry's 41 percent.

Divided Voters

There's a significant gender gap in this race: Kerry has an 11-point lead over Bush among women, while Bush is +15 among men. Bush's support has gained a bit among men in the past month, while women's preferences remained about the same.

Kerry's supported by 87 percent of Democrats, Bush by 91 percent of Republicans — each typically strong in his base. And among independents, the quintessential swing voters, it's a dead heat — 44 percent for Kerry, 43 percent Bush.

White Catholics are another true swing voter group, and here there's been some movement to Bush — from 44 percent support last month to 52 percent now. Kerry, for his part, is doing a bit better among senior citizens, now with a high 59 percent support.

Among registered voters, 34 percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, 33 percent as Republicans and 29 percent as independents. Horse-race results are essentially the same among registered voters and among "likely" voters, those who seem most likely to turn out in the November election.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 22-25 among a random national sample of 1,202 adults, including 909 registered voters. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.